Iran

The IRGC, the regime, and the long shadow.

Yom Haatsmaut Amid Missiles

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(long but LIFE AFFIRMING 👍)

This week we are supposed to celebrate Yom Haatsmaut.

A national day of independence.

A celebration of the achievement and the miracle that was the creation of this state, and what it means for the people of Israel who have marched down this road for millenia.

A recognition of what it means to go from being herded into the gas chambers to flying one of the world’s greatest air forces.

To be one step – one huge and meaningful step – closer to the ultimate freedom we’ve prayed and fought for throughout the longest exile.

A day to look forward to, every year.

And so we’re getting ready.

Meanwhile… the ceasefire with Lebanon didn’t include Hezbollah and the “ceasefire” with the IRGC wasn’t based on any points of agreement, didn’t translate into anything permanent, and expires on… Yom Haatsmaut.

Meanwhile POTUS said Hormuz will never be closed again hours before the IRGC closed it and fired on ships, and said Iran will transfer all its uranium to the USA only for the IRGC to flatly deny anything of the sort minutes later. Sounds like someone’s looking to sell renewed hostilities (“a civilization will die tonight”?) to his base as the necessary response to the IRGC breaking the aforementioned “ceasefire.”

Meanwhile the IRGC has been digging out launchers, manufacturing new launchers and missiles, and repositioning all the assets it conserved and recovered during the 40 days of missiles fired at just the right pace to keep us running to shelters and to deplete our interceptors, escalating at will in response to coalition strikes and political developments.

Meanwhile we are running lower than ever before on interceptors and we can’t cover all the missiles and launchers the IRGC currently has, let alone resupply the interceptors as quickly as the IRGC can make new missiles and launchers.

Meanwhile Hezbollah is repositioning, resupplying, and still under the complete control of the IRGC. Waiting for the signal to resume the rockets that keep half the country running for cover.

Meanwhile the Israeli government lifted all restrictions on Friday and so all of us are grabbing the opportunity to party and are busy planning barbecues with our friends on balconies and in parks and on the beaches and just want to feel fcking normal for a change after weeks/years of war, like we actually have something to celebrate and live for, just to be free of the shelters for just a little bit.

Just a little bit.

And the “ceasefire” expires on Yom Haatsmaut…

I have no idea what to expect this week.

A couple of weeks ago we were staring down the barrel of radically escalated hostilities with possibly devasting consequences for Israelis, and then like 45 minutes before it was bombs and missiles everywhere, the Pakistani government jumped in and we got some kind of pause in the bombs and missiles instead of a lot more of them.

I had stocked our shelter, stayed up reading the news, studying, and waiting for the sirens, and was never so happy to have my concerns prove fruitless if not unfounded.

This Yom Haatsmaut might be the day of normalcy and joy and fun we’ve been collectively craving for over a month.

It might be a day of missiles.

Landing.

Most of the signs I’m seeing as of today are pointing in a clear direction – but everything is in flux, perpetually and rapidly shifting, ever-changing détentes between multiple belligerent and corrupt parties.

Nothing is certain. Nothing is fixed. Nothing is guaranteed.

And always, throughout history and across the world but especially in this place at this time – Divine love, compassion, and grace have accompanied us, even in the darkest hour of night.

Anything can happen, especially the miraculous, especially here, in the land of providential love.

Whatever happens, though, we WILL celebrate our independence. Our freedom. Our autonomy. Our democracy.

The inalienable rights our ancestors fought to assert and defend and exercise in our ancestral land.

They are worth celebrating this year and every year, with thanks and gratitude to the Highest.

Maybe especially this year.

(Yes, the war and the history and everything was complicated and multifaceted – hard won independence for some came at a catastrophic price for others. I will share some thoughts on what independence means, and should mean, and can mean, in a few days. But for this moment I just want to say:)

Whether in the parks or in the shelters… we will celebrate.

We will find a way.

We will have our Yom Haatsmaut.

So, my friends…. I’m praying for normalcy.

I’m praying for barbecues and loud music and the joy of being alive together under the open sky.

I’m praying for another miracle.

But I’m keeping the shelter stocked.

With beer.

Words Matter

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Words matter.

I try to choose my words carefully:

The IRGC – not Iran.
Hezbollah – not Lebanon.
Hamas – not Gaza.
Criminals – not terrorists.
Autonomy – not sovereignty.
Etcetera…

And because I choose my words carefully, I inhabit a very different world than most other people

Hope on a Sunny Day

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I’m hopeful.

Yeah I’m watching the clock waiting for the missiles to start coming again – waiting for the big barrage of remaining missiles, recovered missiles, manufactured missiles, while we sit here like ducks in our unfit shelters and an interceptor stockpile that is nearly all gone – but for the first time in over a month I’m feeling hopeful.

This war may get a lot tougher – the state in its current incarnation may face an existential challenge after years of failed wars and mounting casualties – but Israeli society will survive.

We will endure.

We will rebuild whatever is broken.

We’re not going anywhere.

And if our state crumbles because our politicians failed us and played endless political games for decades, failed us in our hour of dire need –

We will organize a new state.

Maybe some institutions will stay. Maybe some will go. Maybe some will be reworked.

Maybe we’ll create new institutions, that better serve our needs as a society.

Maybe we’ll internalize the lessons that righteous leadership isn’t optional and that the theoretical ends never justify the actual means.

Maybe we’ll write ourselves a constitution that balances rights and responsibilities and protects lawful order and civil society and human freedom all together.

These are a lot of maybes. And I can’t ignore the feeling that I’m staring down the barrel of a gun. But thinking of what this threat actually means, and what it doesn’t, and what can come out of it –

I’m left with a feeling of hope on a sunny day.

The missiles may come.

Our lives may change.

But our society is not so easily uprooted…

May we all be blessed with the gift of peace.

May we all be blessed with a revolution.

Prepare for the Worst

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(Thoughts on the immediate situation… If you live in this country… Please read to the end. Stay safe my friends.)

POTUS is threatening to attack every power plant and bridge in Iran, starting at 8 PM Eastern Time tomorrow night.

I’m hoping for the best. Maybe this will all blow over, maybe he’ll move the deadline again, maybe TACO, idk.

But I’m preparing for the worst.

My friends – Israelis, Palestinians, internationals – please get ready for a wild ride tomorrow night, starting at 3 AM, through 7 AM, if not the entire day.

If you do not have access to a bomb shelter, PLEASE consider spending the festival somewhere you do. I’d even say it’s worth the risk traveling to a safer location, but that’s a tough call and I honestly don’t know what I would definitely do in that situation. I’ve got a baby and no car, I know what it’s like to not be so mobile and not want to expose them to danger.

Please buy extra water and food, and keep them in your bomb shelter along with blankets, batteries, and a first aid kit. Maybe a book or something. Tehillim. Quran. Brandon Sanderson. Whatever works for you.

Don’t forget games for the kids.

Please keep your phones close (as if I even have to say it 🤦) and get ready to go as soon as you get a warning. In our home that’s shoes ~> blankets for baby ~> bathroom ~> coats. Turn off the stove.

Don’t wait for the sirens to get ready. Don’t count on there being enough time.

And if and when the sirens come, please GO, calmly and quickly, to your shelter. Close the doors behind you. And stay there until you get a notification that it’s safe to leave.

I’m hoping for: nothing, like so much of what comes of POTUS’s rants. A day of prayer and study. A potluck lunch and an afternoon nap.

I’m preparing for: a morning (day?) of missile salvos, possibly as bad as the first day of the war, with barely anything left to intercept them.

Now, don’t get it twisted:

This is not doom and gloom.

I’m not trying to scare anyone.

But after a month of daily warnings, sirens, and missiles, I know how burned out we’re getting. Getting a little loose with safety and common sense. Hell, some people I know refuse to go to a shelter at all. 🤦

So in the hopes of nudging even just one person closer towards safety than they otherwise would have been, I’m willing to take the comparatively small risk of looking like a fool and/or Cassandra, and suggest that it’s a good idea to prepare for and stay safe tomorrow night and Wednesday.

Don’t rely on miracles – but always hope for them.

And last but not least, as a reminder, last night we counted 4 in the Omer. (5 if you’re reading this ereb hag.)

שייבנה בית המקדש במהרה בימינו
ותן חלקנו בתורתך

The Narrow Bridge

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I don’t want to be an alarmist or pretend that I can predict the future. I hope that my concerns will be proven to be unfounded. But I want my family, friends, and neighbors to be prepared for what may be coming.

If you’re going to read this – and fair warning, you might not want to – please read until the end.

As far as I can tell, there is a hard math to this war: Missile launchers vs interceptor missiles.

The number of each is depleted in the following process, repeated over and over every day:

1) The IRGC (or Hezbollah or the Houthis) launches a missile.
2) The Iron Dome system gets triggered and sends an interceptor.
3) The US-Israeli coalition air forces hopefully locate the launcher and hopefully destroy it.

The first problem is obvious:

There is a finite, dwindling number of interceptor missiles. They will run out.

In three weeks or six weeks or twelve weeks or X weeks, depending on what you read, they will run out.

The second problem requires just a little bit of research to uncover:

The interceptor missiles can not be resupplied as quickly as the IRGC can manufacture new launchers.

That’s assuming that every launcher reported destroyed was indeed destroyed (history shows this to be unlikely) and that the IRGC isn’t holding many launchers in reserve.

Reserve for what, you ask?

I think they might be holding reserves in anticipation of either of two probable scenarios:

A) The US forces remain or even escalate the war, while Gulf states join the attacks on Iran and/or Iran attacks European states, leaving Israelis to deal in the near future with the current missile rate and the effects of a multifront aerial war, with no Iron Dome protection

Or

B) The US forces withdraw from the war (after all, less than a month in and it’s already contending for the most unpopular war in American history), leaving the Israeli air force to continue hunting the now continually increasing numbers of ICBM launchers alone, and Israelis to deal with a much higher missile rate, with no Iron Dome protection

The situation, as they say, looks rather grim.

Does this mean the state of Israel will be destroyed?

No.

This show is far from over.

This ain’t our first rodeo. We’re still here. We’ll still be here a year from now, a century from now, a millenium from now.

The more history I study, especially of the past 78 years, the more I see again and again the fortuitous alignment of events in highly improbable ways.

This is especially true when you read accounts from the past wars. (Which to be transparent and to add context to my point, I do not think were all legitimate or fought cleanly.)

The math just doesn’t add up. The improbable keeps happening again and again, delivering our people from the worst crises in the most unlikely ways.

I’m not going to jump ahead and use the M word – but I think a serious student of Israeli history would conclude that even when things seem hopeless, it is reasonable to hope for the unexpected.

Two lessons come to mind.

The Psalmist: “I raise my eyes to the mountains; from where will come my help? My help is from the Eternal, maker of heavens and earth.”

Rebbe Nahman: “The whole entire world is a very narrow bridge – and the main thing is not to fear at all.”

This is the narrow bridge – and deliverance will come.

But.

We have to stick together. All of us.

We have to have grace for each other. Ourselves too.

We have to submit to the will of God. Accept what is happening and whatever comes, and do teshuba every day.

We have to have gratitude for every improbable fortuitous alignment of events, for the simple and undeniable fact that God’s love has never abandoned us, despite all the chaos, war, and suffering.

We have to buy water, canned food, medical supplies, and anything else we might need to shelter with if and when things go sideways.

We have to do what we need to take care of our families.

Again – I don’t want to be an alarmist.

I can’t predict the future.

And I hope I’m very wrong in my read of the situation.

But if I have you thinking even just a little bit about how serious the situation might get, and what you need to do to prepare for that day when it comes, then I’m willing to take the risk of issuing such a strong warning – but also to insist that hoping for improbable deliverance is entirely reasonable.

May we merit to be strong and courageous – and to live in quieter times.

Coerced vs Choosing Societies

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“A society that has to coerce its population into compliance does not outcompete one whose people are choosing, daily, under fire, to stay and build.”

Sometimes AI says something smart.

This works in so many ways.

Doesn’t change the immediate calculus of this war but it’s good and important to keep in mind.

When the Interceptors Run Out

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Known: The number of interceptors the US coalition forces have left.

Unknown: The number of ICBM launchers the Khameini regime is conserving underground.

I don’t mean to be a downer but if we don’t count the initial salvos at the start of the war, then the average daily rate of incoming missiles hasn’t really gone down. It’s held relatively steady. Don’t be fooled by the “90% reduction” stat.

In the next 5-6 weeks the US forces are expected to run out of interceptors. Resupply will be insufficient and take months at absolute best.

At the same time, the war is very unpopular in the USA. POTUS has every incentive to unilaterally declare victory and end US involvement in the war.

If the US withdraws, and if the Khameini regime has been conserving missile launchers in the enormous underground facilities it has maintained, will the Israeli air force be capable of continuing to eliminate those launchers on its own?

If more missiles are on the horizon, and there aren’t any interceptors to intercept them, then we’ll still have the early warning system when missiles are launched, right?

Again, I don’t want to be a downer, but that early warning system depends on detection hardware and installations in US-friendly Gulf states that have sustained increasing damage over the past two weeks, materially degrading our warning system, translating into much shorter times between warning, siren, and interception, and sometimes no warning/siren at all.

Take away the interception at the tail end of that system, and the early warning/siren at the front end of it, and all you’re left with is… missiles.

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I don’t know if this war was inevitable or not. The Khameinist regime was definitely making moves to escalate its attacks targeting Israeli and Palestinian civilians, and just the week before Bibi launched the strike on Tehran, the IRGC had effectively taken direct operational control over its main proxy, Hezbollah.

That said, Bibi’s strike was a calculated political move in the context of both his longstanding relationship with right wing American Evangelicals and recent domestic developments in Iran. Bibi himself is an incompetent wartime leader, as his numerous failures with Hamas and the Gaza War show, and probably a criminal to boot, as indicated by the many Israeli investigations of him and his administration.

I don’t trust Bibi. I don’t support him in this war. And I’m wondering if he’s planned for the day when the US goes home.

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Hopefully these are just the paranoid ramblings of someone stressed out by war.

The future is never clear, never certain, never determined.

Every day we wake up to a fresh world, perfectly balanced between merit and guilt, and waiting for our thoughts, words, and actions to tip the scales.

As a collective, our failures, errors, mistakes, and negligence are abundant – we need all the merit we can get.

May the Creator shield all innocents from all bombs and brighten the light at the end of this tunnel.

Miracles in War

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Life is full of miracles.

The improbable and fortuitous concatenation of events, despite conflicting agendas, beliefs, and environmental factors.

Oftentimes, those miracles are easily mistaken for natural events or human achievements – as if a work of art can be reduced to paint on canvas.

But the medium of a miracle is just a vessel and a vessel can be found in nature or created in a workshop.

When an intercontinental ballistic missile is launched, the detection hardware and computer programs used to calculate its trajectory are wonderful inventions that reflect not just one man’s genius but a whole history of improbable and fortuitous events. It’s not foolproof – detectors and computer programs fail – but advanced computing translates into warnings to vulnerable populations that a missile is headed their way.

When that ICBM is intercepted by another missile in midair, fired by another wonderful system with its own even more advanced detectors and programs, the sheer improbability of the event itself staggers the mind. The success of each interception depends not just on astounding precision but on environmental factors combining in fortuitous ways. Again, it’s not foolproof – interceptor missiles fail, too; and there’s always dangerous debris from the explosion that can land anywhere below. Every interception defies the odds.

And when that missile is a clusterbomb, with multiple bombs that can explode over an 8 km radius, the odds that you’ll intercept it in the atmosphere in time – before the bombs separate – are even lower. The clock’s ticking, the computer’s processing, the missile’s roaring towards its targets – and despite all probability, it’s hopefully intercepted high in the atmosphere and detonated before any of its explosives can reach the civilians below.

Highly improbable.

Highly fortuitous.

Nothing short of miraculous.

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Look, I didn’t ask for this war.

I didn’t ask Khameini to shoot missiles at me, whether from Iran, or from Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen.

I didn’t ask Bibi to start massively bombing Tehran and southern Lebanon.

I didn’t ask for this war and I don’t support it, in this or any other phase.

I’m not a partisan, a loyalist, or an ideologue.

I’m just a guy raising a family in Jerusalem who goes down to a bomb shelter with said family every day and knows that if one of the buildings next door is hit we’re probably dead, if there’s a direct hit on our building we’re definitely dead, if the cluster bombs separate a whole lot of people in the neighborhood are dead.

I think about that and, among other things (like what it must be like to be an Iranian or Lebanese father right now), I think about the miracles in life.

Miracles that are easily mistaken for the occurrence of natural events or the operation of advanced technology.

Miracles that can mean the difference between another breath and The End.

Miracles we truly don’t deserve.

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May the miracles never cease.

May we recognize them for what they are.

And may we soon see the day when we no longer need these specific miracles.

Q&A on the War

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Hi! You may be a new friend of mine. While I really like sharing poems and pictures of my baby daughter, and while I also hope to work together to help build the WordPress community in Israel, we’re living in interesting times, so you may have noticed a certain political tinge to some of my posts.

Don’t worry, I promise you no rants.

But I thought a little Q and A might benefit the newcomers in getting situated, and remind the oldtimers that things are more complicated than pop media would have you think.

Q “Why don’t you support the war?”
A Because I don’t trust Bibi to wage it morally, strategically, or effectively. Let alone the current POTUS.

Q “Don’t you want the missiles to stop?”
A Yes but I’m not willing to pay any price for safety; there are reasonable, moral limits to what I am willing to support in exchange for my own skin. While I trust the moral conscience of the majority of IDF soldiers, I think they are constrained and compromised by leadership, policies, and a system that in too many cases positions them to violate those limits. Also, I have no guarantee that even if I sold my soul to pay the price, I’d actually be safe.

Q “But they killed Khameini, doesn’t that matter?”
A I’m glad that wicked man can’t order any more attacks on innocent people but I would have rather he faced justice in an Iranian court of law.

Q “What about Hezbollah?”
A Hezbollah is better armed, trained, and funded than Hamas was on Oct 6. They have survived decades of war with Israel. Despite the pager attack (which btw was not nearly as clean as it was championed to be, many innocents were harmed), Hezbollah is still sending missiles against Israelis (and Palestinians). And the week before Bibi ordered the attack on Tehran, the IRGC took over all Hezbollah units, so now they’re all operating under Khameinist annihilation/suicide orders. They need to be addressed with serious, effective strategy in coordination with Lebanese forces and European allies, not doubling down on a demonstrably failed approach with a massive citizen evacuation order that’s producing its own refugee crisis as we speak. I have close friends who served and are serving in Lebanon, they – not to say nothing of the Israeli and Palestinian residents of the north, let alone the residents of southern Lebanon – deserve better than the status quo.

Q “So you don’t support Israel?”
A I support Israelis. I support Palestinians and Iranians and the Lebanese, too. I support everyone trying to make a good life for their kids and be a good neighbor and contribute something of value to the human species. I think our state is far from perfect, with a history and structural problems that we have not but desperately need to reckon with, and I think this government is criminal and incompetent. But every Saturday night at habdala I pray for the success of this state – that it become a true flowering of the Zionist dream, a country of justice, law, and holy order, a safe haven for all who need it, an integral and integrated part of the regional and human tapestry of spiritual enlightenment and material abundance.

Hope that helps.

Questions About the War

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So I’ve been doing some digging and I have some Questions:

– If, after 5 weeks, the remaining IRGC commanders refuse to surrender and the US is excluded from the succession process, then does that mean the USA won the war?

– If, after 5 weeks, the US has used up all or most of its interceptors against Iranian missiles and drones, what’s left to protect US allies in the Pacific and Europe from China and Russia? (Or Middle Eastern allies from local belligerents?)

– If, after 5 weeks, the US withdraws most of its assembled forces from the region but IRGC and Hezbollah missiles are still falling on Israeli citizens, will the Israeli military be able to continue effective operations in Iran and Lebanon?

– Are US Armed Forces capable of fighting and winning a sustained war on a single front (Iran), let alone two fronts (the assumed precondition for post-WW2 world order), let alone three (Middle East, Pacific, Europe)?

– As the domestic situation, the international standing, and the military capability of the USA respectively destabilizes, declines, and degrades, will Bibi’s ability to maintain a special relationship with GOP POTUS be a help or a hindrance in navigating the geopolitical waters in the years ahead?

🧐

Please note: I have not addressed the spiritual, moral, or economic costs related to any of the above. That reckoning raises its own Questions.