I don’t want to be an alarmist or pretend that I can predict the future. I hope that my concerns will be proven to be unfounded. But I want my family, friends, and neighbors to be prepared for what may be coming.
If you’re going to read this – and fair warning, you might not want to – please read until the end.
As far as I can tell, there is a hard math to this war: Missile launchers vs interceptor missiles.
The number of each is depleted in the following process, repeated over and over every day:
1) The IRGC (or Hezbollah or the Houthis) launches a missile.
2) The Iron Dome system gets triggered and sends an interceptor.
3) The US-Israeli coalition air forces hopefully locate the launcher and hopefully destroy it.
The first problem is obvious:
There is a finite, dwindling number of interceptor missiles. They will run out.
In three weeks or six weeks or twelve weeks or X weeks, depending on what you read, they will run out.
The second problem requires just a little bit of research to uncover:
The interceptor missiles can not be resupplied as quickly as the IRGC can manufacture new launchers.
That’s assuming that every launcher reported destroyed was indeed destroyed (history shows this to be unlikely) and that the IRGC isn’t holding many launchers in reserve.
Reserve for what, you ask?
I think they might be holding reserves in anticipation of either of two probable scenarios:
A) The US forces remain or even escalate the war, while Gulf states join the attacks on Iran and/or Iran attacks European states, leaving Israelis to deal in the near future with the current missile rate and the effects of a multifront aerial war, with no Iron Dome protection
Or
B) The US forces withdraw from the war (after all, less than a month in and it’s already contending for the most unpopular war in American history), leaving the Israeli air force to continue hunting the now continually increasing numbers of ICBM launchers alone, and Israelis to deal with a much higher missile rate, with no Iron Dome protection
The situation, as they say, looks rather grim.
Does this mean the state of Israel will be destroyed?
No.
This show is far from over.
This ain’t our first rodeo. We’re still here. We’ll still be here a year from now, a century from now, a millenium from now.
The more history I study, especially of the past 78 years, the more I see again and again the fortuitous alignment of events in highly improbable ways.
This is especially true when you read accounts from the past wars. (Which to be transparent and to add context to my point, I do not think were all legitimate or fought cleanly.)
The math just doesn’t add up. The improbable keeps happening again and again, delivering our people from the worst crises in the most unlikely ways.
I’m not going to jump ahead and use the M word – but I think a serious student of Israeli history would conclude that even when things seem hopeless, it is reasonable to hope for the unexpected.
Two lessons come to mind.
The Psalmist: “I raise my eyes to the mountains; from where will come my help? My help is from the Eternal, maker of heavens and earth.”
Rebbe Nahman: “The whole entire world is a very narrow bridge – and the main thing is not to fear at all.”
This is the narrow bridge – and deliverance will come.
But.
We have to stick together. All of us.
We have to have grace for each other. Ourselves too.
We have to submit to the will of God. Accept what is happening and whatever comes, and do teshuba every day.
We have to have gratitude for every improbable fortuitous alignment of events, for the simple and undeniable fact that God’s love has never abandoned us, despite all the chaos, war, and suffering.
We have to buy water, canned food, medical supplies, and anything else we might need to shelter with if and when things go sideways.
We have to do what we need to take care of our families.
Again – I don’t want to be an alarmist.
I can’t predict the future.
And I hope I’m very wrong in my read of the situation.
But if I have you thinking even just a little bit about how serious the situation might get, and what you need to do to prepare for that day when it comes, then I’m willing to take the risk of issuing such a strong warning – but also to insist that hoping for improbable deliverance is entirely reasonable.
May we merit to be strong and courageous – and to live in quieter times.